Supply Chain Delays Hinder Offshore Wind Development Amid Steady Growth

The global offshore wind sector, crucial to the world's decarbonization efforts, is facing significant challenges due to supply chain bottlenecks, postponed permitting processes, and delayed auctions. Despite these obstacles, the industry is continuing to expand, with a 7% increase in offshore wind capacity last year expected to rise to 9% this year, adding 11 GW of new installations by the end of 2024, according to an analysis by Oslo-based Rystad Energy.

Offshore wind is a pivotal component of the global energy transition, and projections indicate that its capacity could exceed 520 GW by 2040 (excluding mainland China). Within this, floating offshore wind capacity is expected to contribute 90 GW, with Europe accounting for over 65 GW of this total. Rystad Energy's analysts anticipate that the current floating wind capacity of less than 1 GW will grow to nearly 7 GW by 2030. However, the floating wind sector is facing similar supply chain constraints as the bottom-fixed segment, and increased government support is deemed essential for its further expansion.

Countries like the UK, France, and Portugal are expected to lead European floating offshore wind development, potentially reaching a combined capacity of 5 GW by the end of this decade. In Asia (excluding mainland China), an additional 2 GW is anticipated by 2030. Meanwhile, the Americas are projected to see significant growth from 2025 to 2030, with total capacity reaching around 2 GW. However, the future of offshore wind in the US remains uncertain, as political changes following the upcoming elections could impact the sector's development.

Petra Manuel, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, emphasized the importance of addressing logistical challenges to ensure offshore wind can play a key role in the energy transition. "While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance," Manuel said.