Global brokerage Jefferies has recommended investors focus on India’s private port operators, citing robust growth prospects driven by rising volumes and expanding margins. Its top stock picks remain JSW Infrastructure and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, with an estimated 18–22% upside potential.
In its latest report, Jefferies projects that private port players will deliver 13–21% EBITDA CAGR between FY2025 and FY2030, supported by 10–16% volume CAGR. This growth will be fueled by new capacity additions, privatisation of terminals at major ports, and market share gains by private players.
The Indian government aims to have 80% of major port capacity under private sector control by 2030, with 95% of future capacity expansion expected through private participation. Currently, about 500 million tonnes of port capacity is yet to be privatised, representing a significant opportunity for players like JSW Infrastructure and Adani Ports.
Jefferies believes these two companies will contribute to two-thirds of incremental port volumes in the FY25–30 period, positioning them as key beneficiaries of India’s evolving port infrastructure landscape.
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Indian exporters are likely to face a sharp increase in freight costs following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Announced on April 9, the move lowers tariff rates to 10% for several countries, including India, but notably excludes China.
The temporary relief has sparked a rush among exporters to ship goods before the 90-day window closes, leading to a surge in demand for
container space and pushing up freight rates. Industry experts warn that freight costs could rise by double digits in the coming weeks.
According to Drewry’s World Container Index, the cost of shipping a 40-foot container rose by 3% last week to $2,265, reflecting the global impact of front-loaded shipments.
Ajay Sahai, Director General and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), stated, “The exporters' rush to ship consignments before the 90-day deadline is expected to lead to a double-digit spike in freight rates to the US. Post-deadline, rates could soften.”
Exporters and logistics providers remain cautious amid the volatility. Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and CEO of Container xChange, noted that rising prices at both loading and discharge points are depleting container inventories. “Our members are in wait-and-see mode, though many still anticipate a structural drop in container prices,” he said.
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Journal of Supply Chain is a Hansi Bakis Media brand.